Ball State Cardinals vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Pick & Prediction OCTOBER 19th 2024
Preview and Prediction
Vanderbilt will aim to capitalize on rare momentum as it prepares to take on Ball State on Saturday night in a non-conference matchup in Nashville, Tenn.
The Commodores (4-2) followed up a stunning upset of top-ranked Alabama with a 20-13 victory over Kentucky last Saturday.
Vanderbilt, which maintained the lead throughout both games, has pulled off three upsets against Power 4 teams as double-digit underdogs this season. The other upset was a 34-27 overtime win against Virginia Tech on August 31st.
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The Commodores, who finished with a 2-10 record last season, will now face the unfamiliar challenge of being heavy favorites over the Cardinals (2-4), who secured a 37-35 win against Kent State last Saturday.
Vanderbilt's dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia has an impressive completion rate of 69.1% with 1,116 yards and 10 touchdowns, in addition to 388 rushing yards and two scores this season.
Pavia has been instrumental in extending drives and giving the Commodores a significant advantage in time of possession.
"We need to get at least two first downs in a series in order to feel like we're sticking to our strategy," said coach Clark Lea. "This involves staying ahead of the chains and getting into third-and-manageable situations. Against Kentucky, the runs that were only 2 or 3 yards needed to become 5 or 6 yards, and they did. Avoiding third down becomes a crucial way to maintain possession of the ball, both through design and execution."
One potential challenge for Vanderbilt is keeping Pavia healthy. He had to go to the injury tent twice during the Kentucky game and returned with a knee brace for the first play of the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, Ball State has struggled defensively, allowing an average of 46 points and 504.2 yards per game. However, there were some bright spots in their game against Kent State, including a three-sack performance from linebacker Brandon Berger.
Offensively, the Cardinals present a tougher challenge, averaging 27 points and 339 total yards per game this season.
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Quarterback Kadin Semonza and tight end Tanner Koziol have a strong connection, connecting eight times for 43 yards against Kent State.
"The qualities that he brings from a leadership standpoint, he's the same every day," said Ball State offensive coordinator Jared Elliott of Koziol.
During the first half of the Kentucky game, Vanderbilt lost starting defensive end Miles Capers to a neck strain. On Tuesday, coach Lea stated that Capers is questionable for Saturday's game.