"Stubbs: Kyle Larson solely responsible for his current situation"

For the second consecutive year at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Kyle Larson was once again in pursuit of Ryan Blaney for the win.

And, for the second year in a row, Larson crossed the line between aggression and recklessness, spinning out of second place with only 13 laps remaining.

It was a miracle that Larson was even in contention for the win in South Florida, as a flat tire on lap 47 sent him to the back of the pack. After multiple pit stops and adjustments, Larson managed to break into the top-five in the closing stages and eventually climbed back to second place.

However, Larson's overly aggressive attempt to squeeze between Blaney and the lapped car of Austin Dillon may have cost him more than just the race victory.

Despite his impressive control of the throttle during the spin, the damage to the diffuser of his car forced his pit crew to spend valuable time making repairs, resulting in a drop of several positions on pit road.

When the checkered flag flew, Larson finished in 13th place, earning only 24 points for the day. While not the worst outcome given his early race struggles, it was still a disappointing result.

Larson's late spin now puts him in unfamiliar territory as he competes for his second championship. In his two previous appearances in the Championship Four, he secured his spot by winning the first race of the Round of 8.

However, this was not the case in Las Vegas on October 20th, when Larson faced numerous issues on pit road and had to fight his way to an 11th place finish.

Larson's results in the first two races of the round have left him on the outside looking in for the Championship Four as the series heads to Martinsville for the second-to-last race of the season. He currently sits in fifth place on the playoff grid, seven points behind teammate William Byron for the final transfer spot.

While his current position is largely due to a string of unfortunate events in the past two weeks, there have been other missed opportunities throughout the season that have contributed to his precarious situation.

For instance, his decision to compete in the rain-delayed Indianapolis 500 on May 26th instead of starting NASCAR's Coca-Cola 600 ultimately resulted in Tyler Reddick winning the regular season championship following the Southern 500 at Darlington. Larson missed out on five extra playoff points that were awarded to Reddick, which would have put him only two points behind Byron for the final spot.

Another flat tire at Kansas in the first race of the Round of 12 prevented Larson from contending for the win at one of his best tracks. And a risky move at Michigan in August led to a spin and a 34th place finish.

At Iowa, Larson was forced into a three-wide situation while trying to make his way through the field, resulting in a crash and a 34th place finish. In Chicago, he lost control on the wet city streets, crashing into a tire barrier and finishing in 39th place. And a crash in the opening race of the playoffs at Atlanta eliminated any chance of gaining crucial playoff points.

All of these incidents have led Larson to his current position, where he must deliver an exceptional performance in order to make the Championship Four for the third time in four seasons.

Larson previously won at Martinsville in April 2023, but it was his main competitor Byron who won in the Cup Series' first visit to the track on April 7th.

Sunday's race will be a battle within the battle for Larson, as he has a chance to secure a spot in the Championship Four. But it will also be crucial for him to avoid pushing the envelope and making another risky move in order to achieve his goal.

--Samuel Stubbs, Field Level Media