"Previewing 2025: The American Express, Predictions, and Top Picks"
The PGA Tour makes its return to the mainland in 2025 with The American Express, the only tournament on the schedule that features both a pro-am format and an event taking place over three courses.
Despite the withdrawals of World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Xander Schauffele due to medical issues, a strong field remains with 20 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking competing. Our golf experts preview the event that begins Thursday, and share their favorite prop picks and best bets to win this week.
THE AMERICAN EXPRESS
Location: La Quinta, Calif., Jan. 16-19
Courses: PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course (Par 72, 7,210 Yards); PGA West Nicklaus Stadium Course (Par 72, 7,147 Yards); La Quinta Country Club (Par 72, 7,060 Yards)
Purse: $8.8M (Winner: $1.584M)
Defending Champion: Nick Dunlap
FedEx Cup leader: Hideki Matsuyama
HOW TO FOLLOW
TV: Thursday-Sunday: 4-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Streaming (ESPN+): Thursday-Sunday: 11:30 a.m.-7 p.m. ET
X: @TheAmexGolf
PROP PICKS
--Patrick Cantlay to Defeat Justin Thomas (+110 at DraftKings): Cantlay has a strong history of results in this event (see below), and comes in with nothing worse than a T25 in his last eight starts worldwide. This includes a T15 at The Sentry two weeks ago, where he beat Thomas (T26) by two strokes. While Thomas has also been in good form with three top-7 finishes to close out 2024, we favor Cantlay's track record in the desert.
--Nicolas Echavarria Top 20 Finish (+250 at BetRivers): If not for Nick Taylor's miraculous chip-in on the 72nd hole on Sunday, Echavarria would have had his second win in his last six starts. As it stands, he collected his second runner-up finish in his last three starts. He tied for 65th in this event last year, so he does have experience on all three courses, and no one in this week's field is hotter. Echavarria's Top 20 odds have a shorter +220 payout at DraftKings.
--Eric Cole to Make Cut (-200 at DraftKings): This is the longest odds the book is offering on missed cut props this week. Cole is now ranked 51st in the world after finishing fifth in Honolulu -- his fourth consecutive made cut. In fact, Cole has only missed the cut twice in his last 15 starts.
2025 Prop Pick Record: 1-2-0
BEST BETS
--Thomas (+1200) tied for third last year, highlighted by a third-round 61. He has drawn 7 percent of the total money wagered on this week's winner -- second most in the field.
--Sungjae Im (+1400 at DraftKings) started the year with a solo third at The Sentry for his fifth consecutive top-13 finish worldwide. He opened the week as the co-favorite, but Im's odds have slightly lengthened while receiving light support from the public thus far.
--Sam Burns (+1600) tied for sixth and 11th in the last two years, and has six consecutive top-15 finishes worldwide. He leads the field with 4 percent of the total bets backing Burns to win, and is tied with Thomas in total money supporting him.
--Cantlay (+1800) shot a 60 as an amateur in 2011 and finished as runner-up here in 2021. He leads the field with 9 percent of the money backing him to claim his first win in three years.
--Tony Finau (+2200) will make his eighth start in the event, with his best finish to date being fourth place in 2021.
--Clark (+3000) is the top-ranked player in the field. After a T15 at The Sentry, he competed in the debut match of the TGL on Jan. 6
