Previewing Week 7 TNF: Broncos vs. Saints - Prop Bets and Predictions
The seventh week of the NFL regular season commences with the highly-anticipated return of Sean Payton to New Orleans, where he led the Saints to nine playoff appearances and their only Super Bowl victory during his 15-year tenure.
Payton, now in his second season as head coach of the Denver Broncos, admitted that Thursday night's game will be a unique experience for him.
Both teams are coming off losses. The Broncos (3-3) fell to the Los Angeles Chargers 23-16 at home last Sunday, ending their three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Saints (2-4) suffered their fourth consecutive loss under Dennis Allen, Payton's former defensive coordinator who took over as head coach after Payton resigned in 2021.
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ODDS AND TRENDS
The Broncos are favored by 2.5 points, with 66 percent of spread-line bets and 79 percent of the money backing them. The moneyline action is split, with 63 percent of the money on the Broncos (-145) and 57 percent on the Saints (+120). The Over/Under is set at 37.0 points, with an even split on total bets and 59 percent of the money on the Under.
PROP PICKS
--Courtland Sutton Over 3.5 Receptions (-135 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the sportsbook. Sutton has averaged 7.8 targets but only 3.5 receptions per game. He's coming off a four-catch game against the Chargers and has scored in two of Denver's past three games.
--Alvin Kamara Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM): The book reported 99 percent of all bets on this prop have backed the over, and for good reason. He should serve as a security blanked for rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, who targeted Kamara eight times last week, although it produced only 24 yards on five receptions. That snapped a four-game streak of Kamara hauling in at least 40 yards worth of receptions.
THE NEWS
Payton, in his second season with the Broncos, is trying to show he can adapt the offense that was successful with Drew Brees to fit rookie quarterback Bo Nix. However, Nix currently ranks 34th in passer rating (73.7) and 23rd in total yards (1,082) in the NFL.
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Denver's success so far has been largely due to their defense, which ranks fourth in points allowed per game (16) and yards allowed per game (284.3).
Allen's defense, on the other hand, has struggled and is currently last in average yards allowed (395.8) and 23rd in points allowed (24.5).
\"(Payton) does a really good job with the offense -- a lot of different personnel groups, a lot of different formations,\" said Saints coach Dennis Allen of his former boss. \"And he does a really good job of identifying areas of weakness that he wants to try to attack.\"
The Saints are more focused on ending their losing streak as they complete a stretch of three games in 11 days, rather than who is coaching the opposing team.
\"He's going to be fired up,\" said New Orleans defensive end Cam Jordan. \"Everybody in this building knows who Sean Payton is, and if he sees blood in the water, he's going to try and take advantage. We're not helping to deter that at this point.\"
Rattler, a fifth-round draft pick, will make his second consecutive start in place of injured quarterback Derek Carr.
Rattler showed promise in rallying his team from a 17-0 deficit to a 27-24 halftime lead last week, but ultimately couldn't prevent them from being shut out in the second half.
INJURY REPORT
The Saints have ruled out wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee), guard Cesar Ruiz (knee), and linebacker Pete Werner (hamstring) after they did not participate in practice all week. Shaheed will require meniscus surgery. Quarterback Derek Carr (oblique) is listed as doubtful but did not practice all week and is not expected to play.
One Denver starter, cornerback Pat Surtain II, is in the league's concussion protocol and has been ruled out after missing practice all week. Offensive tackle Alex
