MLB picks: Best baseball bets for Friday's schedule, including Yandy Díaz HR play and Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Welcome to another Friday and we're here to ride that wave from the 2-0 day last Friday. Let's hit another two this week and try to pile a home run on top of them here at Friday Night Lines. Without further ado ... 

The odds this week come via BetMGM.

Blue Jays at Yankees, over 8.5 (-120)

I like Cam Schlitter, the Yankees right-handed rookie starter who toes the slab tonight. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman is plenty capable of throwing a good game as well. 

I like the two offenses here a lot more, though. The Yankees lead the majors in runs per game at 5.29, while the Blue Jays have scored 6.0 per game in the second half and 5.82 per game going all the way back to May 28.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays series preview: AL East title on the line as postseason races heat up

Mike Axisa

And even though we like the starting pitchers, the bullpens are not to be trusted. The Yankees' second-half bullpen ERA of 4.81 ranks 25th, while the Blue Jays sit 29th at 5.60. 

We only need a final score of 5-4 or 6-3 to get home here, so stick with it even if the score is only something like 1-1 through five innings. The offenses are both capable of putting up crooked numbers late to cash our tickets. 

Braves -1.5 over Mariners (+155)

This is mostly a fade of the Mariners, who are awful right now, especially on the road. They've lost 12 of their last 14 games on the road. They were just outscored 25-11 by the Rays in three games in Tampa and now start the third leg of a long road trip on the opposite side of the country from the Pacific Northwest. 

The Braves, meanwhile, right now more closely resemble the contending team we all thought they'd be at the start of the year. They've gone 15-10 since Aug. 8 and it'll be nice to return home after a long road trip. 

Mariners starter Logan Gilbert is ripe for the picking for the Braves' offense, too. He has a 5.80 ERA in nine road starts this season and has a 5.31 ERA in his last four starts. 

On the other side, Braves lefty Chris Sale returned from the injured list to allow only one run on three hits in six innings with nine strikeouts last time out and that was against a tough offense in Philadelphia. The Mariners haven't seen Sale since May 1 of 2024 and I love the relative unfamiliarity here for Sale. 

My expectation is that this Braves win isn't close, so we're taking the run line at significant plus money.

Home run play: Yandy Díaz +575

George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa is a very homer-friendly ballpark. That doesn't only apply to lefties with that short right-field porch. For right-handed hitters, it's the second-best home run park in the majors this season. 

The Rays host the Guardians Friday evening with right-hander Gavin Williams starting for the visitors. He's given up 20 home runs in 143 ⅔ innings this season. He's been worse on the road than at home and has reverse splits, as right-handed hitters have an .801 OPS against him while lefties have a .545 OPS. So let's zero in on a righty! 

Díaz is 4 for 8 with three doubles in his career against Williams. He has 22 home runs this season and 17 of those have come at home. He also hasn't hit a home run since Aug. 25 -- so he's due -- but is locked in with a .483 average and .621 slugging percentage since then. 

It's still a bit of a long shot, as can be surmised from the odds, but a lot of things line up here for a good bet.

Futures play: AL East team wins ALCS -105

I don't have a ton of faith in the Tigers right now. The offense can't be counted on for consistency, but it will mostly have to carry the Tigers to the World Series with the rotation behind Tarik Skubal in tatters and that bullpen being a sieve far too often. I can't trust anyone in the AL West, either. That leaves the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox. Yes, all of them have warts because the entire AL is wide open, but someone has to win it. In this one, at basically even money, I get the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees. I'll take that.