Yankees vs. Blue Jays series preview: AL East title on the line as postseason races heat up

Perhaps the most critical series of the AL East race this season will take place this weekend when the New York Yankees host the division-leading Toronto Blue Jays for three games at Yankee Stadium. Toronto is atop the AL East with a three-game lead over the Yankees. The Yankees will try to close that gap this weekend.

Here are the AL East standings:

1. Toronto Blue Jays: 81-59
2. New York Yankees: 78-62 (3 GB)
3. Boston Red Sox: 78-63 (3 ½ GB)
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 71-69 (10 GB)
5. Baltimore Orioles: 64-76 (17 GB)

The Yankees (and Red Sox) are comfortably in wild card position. This is not a "win the division or you will miss the postseason" situation. That said, winning the division likely comes with a Wild Card Series bye. Winning the division and skipping a round is greatly preferable to having to go through that best-of-three Wild Card Series.

Here are the details for this weekend's three-game series in the Bronx. Watch Blue Jays at Yankees on Fubo (try for free), and follow the game live with analysis and highlights right here on CBS Sports.

The Yankees played Thursday night in Houston (that game featured a bat controversy), so Schlittler and Gil flew ahead to rest up. Yankees manager Aaron Boone was not particularly happy about not having an afternoon getaway game Thursday and having to travel overnight back to New York. (The Blue Jays had an off-day Thursday.)

"We'll make the best of it," Boone told reporters, including the New York Post. "I have some conversations sometimes (with MLB), but you also understand it's the nature of the beast and 162 games in 180 days, you're going to have some tough schedules. But it doesn't really matter. Nobody cares. We're at that point in the season, we're in the stretch drive, we need to keep winning games." 

Here are three things to know heading into this all-important three-game series at Yankee Stadium.

Toronto has dominated the season series

The Blue Jays are 7-3 against the Yankees this season while outscoring them 59-51 in the 10 games, though the season series has been more lopsided than it looks. The Yankees took two of three from the Blue Jays in late April, including an 11-2 win. Since then, Toronto is 6-1 against the Yankees while outscoring them 52-33.

In early July, the Blue Jays swept four games from the Yankees at Rogers Centre and moved into sole possession of first place in the AL East. They haven't been atop the division since. A few weeks later the Blue Jays won two of three against the Yankees in Toronto. That series was memorable for the Yankees making seven errors in three games.

It goes without saying the Yankees will have to play much cleaner baseball to beat the Blue Jays this weekend. Toronto's hitters strike out in only 17.6% of their plate appearances. That's the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. They force you to make plays and the Yankees were not up to the task in July.

The Blue Jays have already clinched the season series and thus the tiebreaker over the Yankees. That means their three-game lead in the AL East is really a four-game lead. A tie does the Yankees no good. So, even if the Yankees sweep the three games this weekend, the Blue Jays will technically remain in first place because they hold the tiebreaker.

Both bullpens are struggling

There are some parallels between these two bullpens. The Yankees (Devin Williams) and Blue Jays (Jeff Hoffman) both brought in big-name closers in the offseason, but they've been wobbly and outright bad at times. They also added bullpen help at the trade deadline. Some additions (David Bednar for the Yankees and Seranthony Domínguez for the Blue Jays) have worked out better than others (Camilo Doval for the Yankees and Louie Varland for the Blue Jays).

The two bullpens have had a real hard time the last few weeks. Here are the numbers since Aug. 1:

Way too many walks for Toronto's bullpen and way too many home runs for New York's. They have both been negative units overall in terms of win probability, and a leaky bullpen is about the last thing a contender needs in a division race.

Earlier this week, Yankees' relievers allowed eight runs and put 19 runners on base in eight innings during their three games with the Astros. Blue Jays' relievers allowed 10 runs with 22 baserunners in 12 ⅓ innings during their series with the Cincinnati Reds. Not much to feel good about with either bullpen right now. For both teams, the tried-and-true "wear down the starter and get to the soft underbelly of the bullpen" strategy will be in effect this weekend.

Who's hot, who's not

Baseball is a game of hot and cold streaks. Consistency is a myth. A .300 hitter doesn't get three hits every 10 at-bats, or even hit .300 every single month. He hits .300 one month, .250 the next, .350 the month after that, etc. Naturally, some Blue Jays and Yankees go into this weekend swinging the bat better than others. 

Here are three Blue Jays players who have been red hot the last 14 days:

Springer is back in the leadoff spot and having a monster season. He'll get some MVP votes when the time comes. Daulton Varsho has been on a power binge since coming back from a hamstring injury last month. He's hit five home runs in the last two weeks and has 18 home runs in only 197 plate appearances this year.

On the other end of the spectrum, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been relatively quiet the last two weeks (.222/.302/.333), though he seems to love hitting against the Yankees. He's a career .291/.360/.535 hitter with 21 home runs in 96 career games against the Yankees, including 15 home runs in 45 games in Yankee Stadium. Those are his most homers in any visiting ballpark.

Here now are three New York players who have swung the bat well the last two weeks:

Grisham has been a revelation for the Yankees this year. Acquired as a salary dump in the Juan Soto trade, Grisham slugged his 30th home run of the season on Thursday. Bellinger effectively replaced Soto in the outfield and could get down-ballot MVP votes. Chisholm, it should be noted, exited Thursday's game with a knee contusion. His status for the weekend is unclear.

Aaron Judge has not looked quite like himself since returning from a flexor strain last month, though for Judge, being "off" still means hitting .255/.417/.511 over the last 14 days. Anthony Volpe has been the biggest drain on New York's offense lately. He's hitting .175/.190/.300 over the last two weeks. Given the two bullpens and the two lineups, this figures to be an offense-happy weekend in the Bronx.