Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction, pick, odds, spread where to watch: Payback chance awaits Lane Kiffin, Rebels
An upset loss to Kentucky last season ultimately kept Ole Miss out of the College Football Playoff
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Nearly a year removed from last season's loss to Kentucky, Lane Kiffin is still haunted by a setback that derailed Ole Miss' unbeaten start and altered its place in the playoff conversation. The Wildcats stunned the Rebels as heavy underdogs, and the defeat continues to linger for Kiffin ahead of Saturday's return trip to Lexington.
"It was really hard to deal with," Kiffin said Monday, noting that last year's early — and sleepy — kickoff didn't help. "I just didn't think we played that well either. ... It just all sucked."
No. 21 Ole Miss, now built around a new roster outside of a handful of returning starters, rolled past Georgia State 63-10 in the opener behind first-year starting quarterback Austin Simmons, who replaced first-round pick Jaxson Dart. Kentucky, picked near the bottom of the SEC this fall, survived a 24-16 scare against Toledo.
Ole Miss vs. Kentucky: Need to know
Battle of transfer backs: Kentucky's Dante Dowdell and Ole Miss' Kewan Lacy both cleared the 100-yard mark in successful openers. Dowdell, who spent time at Oregon and Nebraska, posted the first 100-yard game of his career with 129 yards against Toledo, punctuated by a 79-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Lacy, a Missouri transfer, scored three times and rumbled for 108 yards in his Rebels debut.
Rebels' poll streak: Dating back to the 2023 opener, Ole Miss has appeared in every AP Top 25 with 22 wins over that span. Kentucky, meanwhile, is 3-7 against ranked foes in that same stretch under Mark Stoops including last year's upset of the Rebels in Oxford.
Yards per play: Ole Miss averaged 8.9 yards per play and racked up 33 first downs in its opener, compared to Kentucky's slower, grind-it-out pace. The Wildcats averaged just 4.6 yards per play with only three explosive gains: Dowdell's long run and chain-moving receptions from Josh Kattus and Willie Rodriguez. Transfer quarterback Zach Calzada struggled in his debut, finishing with 85 yards and an interception.
Where to watch Ole Miss vs. Kentucky live
Date: Saturday, Sept. 6 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kroger Field -- Lexington, Kentucky
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction, picks
The last four matchups in this SEC series have all been decided by three points or less, including a pair of shootouts in the Bluegrass. There's not an analytical edge here, but Stoops' program seems to get up for this matchup more than a few others in the conference and coming off last season's victory over the Rebels, already knows a double-digit spread doesn't mean much. Simmons had two giveaways in the opener, so he'll need to trim those mistakes to win on the road. Ole Miss wins this one, but Kentucky covers.
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