Chargers vs. Chiefs: Best player prop bets for Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert in Week 1
The SportsLine Projection Model has shared its top recommendations for player props for Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes ahead of Friday's Chargers vs. Chiefs matchup
•
2 min read
The 2025 NFL kicked off with the Eagles beating the Cowboys in a wild one that saw an ejection, points galore in the first half and a lightning delay. Can Friday come close to that kind of night? We will see, as two AFC West foes do battle down in Sao Paulo, Brazil, as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Los Angeles Chargers at 8 p.m. ET. This is the second year in a row Brazil has hosted a Week 1 matchup, with Philadelphia beating Green Bay last year. Now, it's the AFC West's turn. The top sportsbooks have plenty of available NFL player prop betting opportunities for bettors to choose from in this Week 1 matchup, especially as it pertains to star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert,
The SportsLine projection model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has graded individual player props on a 0 through 5 star scale based each player's average across the simulations. So which way is the model leaning for these two quarterbacks' top NFL player props on Friday?
Whether you're a new NFL bettor or have years of experience, it's always worth checking out our NFL betting guide ahead of this massive Week 1 AFC West matchup.
Here, we'll look at odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to look at each quarterback's props for this Week 1 rivalry game. Check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for Friday's Chargers vs. Chiefs matchup, including more player props.
Passing yardage props
Patrick Mahomes: 252.5 (Over -111, Under -113)
Justin Herbert: 231.5 (Over -113, Under -111)
Top SportsLine projection model pick: Mahomes Over 249.5 (4.5 stars)
The model expects Mahomes to start the year off in a big way and pass for 283.1 yards against the Chargers on Friday. He's gone Over this line in four of his last five road games when the Chiefs were favored, averaging 253.4 passing yards per game.
Passing touchdowns props
Patrick Mahomes: 1.5 (Over -148, Under +116)
Justin Herbert: 1.5 (Over +102, Under -129)
Top SportsLine projection model pick: Mahomes Over 1.5 (3.5 stars)
Mahomes is projected to throw 2.0 touchdowns on Friday against the Chargers, and he's gone Over 1.5 passing touchdowns in five straight road games with an average of 2.8 touchdowns per game over that span.
Total completions props
Patrick Mahomes: 23.5 (Over -126, Under -101)
Justin Herbert: 21.5 (Over -113, Under -113)
Top SportsLine projection model pick: Herbert Under 21.5 (3.5 stars)
Herbert is projected to complete 18.1 passes against the Chiefs, and he's gone Under this line in six of his last seven home games, averaging 18.3 completions. It should be noted, however, that while Los Angeles is the designated home team for this game, it is an unfamiliar spot for both teams as the game's in Brazil.
Rushing yardage props
Patrick Mahomes: 17.5 (Over -114, Under -110)
Justin Herbert: 17.5 (Over -110, Under -114)
Top SportsLine projection model pick: Mahomes Under 17.5 (3.5 stars)
Mahomes can take off and run when he needs to, but the model doesn't expect him to have much success on Friday with a projection of 14.8 rushing yards against the Chargers. Mahomes went Under this rushing yards prop line in six of his last seven road games when Kansas City was favored.
