Chiefs vs. Chargers player props, alternate lines, picks: Model backing +2300 parlay for NFL Sao Paulo game

For the second straight season, the NFL scheduled an exciting Week 1 matchup in Brazil. The Los Angeles Chargers, in their second season under coach Jim Harbaugh, are the "home" team against the three-time reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs on Friday night. The game features an exciting matchup of top NFL quarterbacks: the future Hall of Famer Patrick Mahomes and his rival, Justin Herbert. Kansas City has won each of the last seven matchups, though six of them have been within one score. The latest NFL odds list Herbert's over/under for total passing yards as high as 236.5, while Mahomes' tops out at 253.5, but there are also alternate NFL player props you can play to enhance your payout or take out some of the risk.

Herbert's alternate line for 300 or more passing yards is +400 (risk $100 to win $400), which he's accomplished five times combined over the last two seasons. NFL alternate line props are available for nearly every offensive player in every game, and you can combine them with some of the best sportsbook promos to add even more value. SportsLine's proven computer model can help you identify some of the top NFL alt props to use on some of the best sports betting apps. Use the latest DraftKings promo code, and you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Best NFL player prop longshots for Chiefs vs. Chargers:

• Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, 300+ passing yards (+310)
• Xavier Worthy, Chiefs, 100+ receiving yards (+400)
• Keenan Allen, Chargers, 50+ receiving yards (+155)

Parlay these picks for +2300 odds at bet365 (odds subject to change). Use the latest bet365 bonus code and get $300 in bonus bets on a $5 bet. 

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, 300+ passing yards (+310)

Between two successful offenses, the potential of a shootout is certainly in play on Friday night. Patrick Mahomes has topped 300 yards passing seven times in the regular season over the last two seasons combined. While only Cincinnati's Joe Burrow eclipsed this total against Los Angeles in 2024, Mahomes has the weapons around him to give the Chargers' secondary fits. His over/under for total passing yards is 243.5 yards, but the model is confident that the future Hall of Fame quarterback will exceed that total. You can find Mahomes priced at +310 to record 300 or more passing yards at FanDuel, where you can also get $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5 or more wins.

Xavier Worthy, Chiefs, 100+ receiving yards (+400)

Worthy topped this number only once last season, but it was an impressive eight reception, 157 yard, two touchdown performance in Kansas City's Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia. With Rashee Rice suspended, Worthy is Kansas City's top wide receiver for at least the first six weeks of the 2025 season. With his big play ability, the Chiefs' speedster is fully capable of surpassing this number on two or three catches. His over/under for receiving yards is 59.5, but there's excellent value from this alt line at bet365.

Keenan Allen, Chargers, 50+ receiving yards (+155)

The Chargers brought the dependable Allen back after a one season stint in Chicago, where he registered 70 catches for 744 yards and seven scores last season. In 2023, he posted 1,243 yards receiving for Los Angeles, including surpassing 50 yards in 12 of 13 games. Justin Herbert already trusts the veteran receiver, and while he may not play a full complement of snaps due to the presence of second-year receiver Ladd McConkey, Allen should get enough volume to exceed this total. Once again, bet365 has a good alt line price here.

Where to bet NFL alternate props for Chiefs vs. Chargers

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer NFL player props for Chargers vs. Chiefs in Week 1:

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Need more from SportsLine? See the top Week 1 NFL picks from SportsLine NFL expert Sia Nejad, who is on a 64-38-2 roll (+2050) on NFL picks.