Was Trevor Lawrence worth the hype? His make-or-break 2025 season begins now

It was never supposed to be this hard for Trevor Lawrence. 

A household name in recruiting circles since his sophomore year of high school, Lawrence delivered on that hype and then some in college, winning a national championship at Clemson and finishing a sterling 34-2 in three years as a starter. When the Jacksonville Jaguars made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the widespread expectation was he'd take the league by storm, if not immediately, then in short order. Instead, Lawrence's career through four years has been a rollercoaster. 

Lawrence has completed 63.3% of his career passes at an average of just 6.8 yards per attempt. He's thrown 69 touchdowns against 46 interceptions. His passer rating of 85.0 is below-average and, according to Tru Media, he checks in a disappointing 28th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback among 39 qualifying passers during that four-year span. He's just behind Aidan O'Connell. Yes, really.

"I think he'd be the first to tell you, 'I've got to do things better,'" said Matt Ryan, former NFL MVP and now studio analyst for The NFL Today. 

The most maddening thing has been the inconsistency. 

After a truly dreadful rookie season under Urban Meyer in which he (and the entire Jaguars team) looked utterly lost and he led the league with 17 interceptions, Lawrence took a significant step forward as a sophomore under Doug Pederson, making the Pro Bowl while throwing for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. It was a whale of a season:

• Lawrence ranked sixth in EPA per dropback and seventh in passing success rate.
• He had one of the lowest turnover-worthy throw rates in the league (2.4%) and created explosive plays on 8.7% of his dropbacks, which ranked 11th-best in the NFL. 
• He avoided sacks (4.4%, fourth-best) and did a good job of picking up third downs. 

Lawrence looked like the embryonic version of the guy many thought he was destined to become, and he seemed to cement his status with a comeback victory over the Chargers in the wild card round of the playoffs, rebounding from a four-interception first half with four consecutive touchdown passes and a game-winning field goal drive.

But as most football fans know, progress isn't always linear -- and Lawrence's certainly hasn't been. He either plateaued or took a small step backward, depending on your perspective, while playing through several injuries in 2023. His interception rate spiked back up to nearly where it was as a rookie and he didn't make up for it in any significant way. The Jaguars apparently felt good enough about his progress to lavish him with a monster contract extension nonetheless: five years and $275 million, with $142 million in guarantees. It's still the fifth-largest contract among all quarterbacks leaguewide. 

Clearly, they expected that he would continue to get better. And it was a reasonable expectation considering his skill set and pedigree. But they ended up being wrong. Lawrence again took a step backward in 2024, with his completion rate dipping to just 60.6% and his interception rate remaining stubbornly high while he again failed to make up for it with improvements in other statistical categories. He also had his season ended by an injury to his shoulder and later a concussion. 

Heading into his fifth NFL season -- the "sweet spot" of a quarterback's career, says lead game analyst for The NFL on CBS Tony Romo -- there are arguably more questions than answers about what, exactly, Lawrence is at this point in his career. The skill set that made him the No. 1 pick and such a highly-touted prospect is still there, but his ability to harness it seems to wax and wane. 

"It's a prove-it year for Trevor Lawrence," said CBS Sports NFL analyst Pete Prisco, a legendary figure in Jacksonville media circles. "A lot of people don't think he's capable of putting up the big numbers. I do." 

Lawrence has not been put in the best position to succeed. His rookie season under Meyer was a joke and should arguably just be thrown out the window. His three years under Pederson provided him a more professionalized environment, but he didn't exactly have a ton of help elsewhere on the roster and, as we saw toward the end of Pederson and former offensive coordinator Press Taylor's tenures in Philadelphia, they're not exactly among the group of offensive minds that is elevating quarterback play with their schemes. 

All of which is to say, it's worth examining Lawrence's career on a deeper level, both from the perspective of what so many in NFL circles thought he'd become, and what he's actually been. 

"Lawerence was a scout's dream coming out of high school," said Andrew Ivins, the director of high school football scouting for 247Sports. "From the frame and the mechanics to the pocket mobility and the decision-making, it was everything you wanted in a potential franchise quarterback at that age. He was really the belle of the ball from the jump in the 2018 recruiting cycle."

In college, Lawrence lived up to every bit of the potential that scouts like Ivins saw from him at Cartersville High School in Georgia, where he was a four-year starter with two state championships and a 52-2 record. Lawrence's Clemson Tigers went 34-2 in his starts and won the national championship his true freshman season, for which he was named the game's Offensive MVP. He started for three years, completing 66.6% of his passes at an average of 8.9 yards per attempt, with 90 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He came in second to DeVonta Smith in Heisman Trophy voting in 2020. 

Lawrence stood tall (literally, at 6-foot-6) in the pocket and calmly delivered strikes all over the field. He was incredibly mobile not just within the pocket but outside of it, and used his legs as an additional weapon: he ran for 943 yards and 18 touchdowns during his college career, including one on the defining play of his career (as seen below). When you remove sacks from the equation, that yardage number would be even higher. (College statistics count sacks as negative-yardage runs.) In short, Lawrence had all the tools, and he had as much experience and success in college as an NFL scout could dream of.

"Coming out of Clemson in 2021, Lawrence was viewed as a generational talent in part because of his size, big arm, athleticism, and big-game performances in college," said Ryan Wilson, NFL Draft analyst for CBS Sports. "I remember having this conversation with colleagues shortly after the 2020 draft -- would they take Joe Burrow, who had just been taken No. 1 overall by the Bengals, or would they prefer Lawrence, who still had another year of college before he declared for the draft? The unanimous response I got back: 'Lawrence.'"

Lawrence was of course considered the no-brainer No. 1 overall pick in 2021, even in what became a crowded quarterback class where passers came off the board with each of the first three picks and five of them went in the top 15. There was essentially no question that the Jaguars were finally getting their franchise quarterback after years in the wilderness with guys like Blaine Gabbert, Luke McCown, Chad Henne, Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler, Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton making starts under center. 

The Jaguars job was one of the most coveted head-coaching openings of that cycle, but Jacksonville's choice of coach could hardly have worked out any worse. Meyer was a disaster from the jump, and he didn't even last through Lawrence's first full season. The sideshow of the Meyer era clearly affected Lawrence on the field, along with the rest of the team. He essentially had no chance of success in that environment, and he crumbled under the weight of a horrific situation, leading the NFL in interceptions and looking like a shell of the player who'd made so many so excited during his college career.

Lawrence has been up and down in the three years since, but there have been situational factors to consider. There are the injuries in 2023 and 2024. There's the porous offensive line (the Jaguars checked in 21st and 20th in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades over the last two seasons after grading out sixth in Lawrence's breakout 2022 season). There's the lack of explosive weaponry he had until the Jags selected Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round ahead of last season. There's the factor of Pederson and Taylor not providing him with many easy answers and often called upon him to make the most difficult types of throws. 

"You don't play the position in a vacuum," Ryan said. "You are dependent on other players, coaches, being in position to make plays."

This is a theme that comes up no matter who you talk to about Lawrence, the idea that the situation has held him back. It probably has, but plenty of other quarterbacks have been able to overcome situational factors to find success anyway, and that's where Lawrence has come up short. Coming into the league, Lawrence was billed as the kind of player who could transcend his situation and lift up the players around him with his elite talent -- talent that almost anyone around the league will tell you is still there. But that hasn't yet been the case. 

And there are specific reasons for that. 

"Accuracy to me is kind of paramount," Ryan said. "But accuracy comes from, in my opinion, confidence and belief in what you're doing and comfortability with the scheme and knowing where you're going with the football. That allows you to kind of put it where you want. But they have had guys running open, right, and guys in position to make plays where he's missed too frequently. And I think that's the number one thing. If he can clean that up, get a little bit more accurate between 10 and 20 yards, that intermediate passing game, I think that would kind of change things for him."

Lawrence has indeed missed open guys too often. Watch his tape and you can see him spraying balls high and wide, in particular. And according to Tru Media, he ranks 27th out of the aforementioned 39 qualified quarterbacks in off-target throw rate (11.7%) since he entered the league. On the intermediate throws that Ryan specified, he's 28th with a 17.3% off-target rate and his 79.2% catchable-pass rate ranks just 31st. 

For a player who was so accurate during the previous stages of his career, it's definitely been startling to see him struggle in that area of the game. And it's not the only place where he hasn't lived up to expectations.

"I think the biggest thing is just pre-snap, having an understanding of where to start with your eyes," said Tony Romo, former Cowboys quarterback and lead game analyst for The NFL on CBS. "Sometimes the defense dictates that the ball should go here. But if someone doesn't win, but the ball should be going there, and he should be open, but he's not, then you have to hold the ball or pull it, and have answers for all the possibilities, [and he hasn't]."

Lawrence has indeed struggled in these situations. According to Tru Media, Lawrence is a mere 548 of 1,043 (52.5%) for 7,620 yards (7.3 per attempt), 41 touchdowns and 35 interceptions on throws more than 2.5 seconds after the snap. He ranks 30th among that group of 39 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback on those plays, as well as 30th in yards per attempt, 27th in touchdown rate, 29th in interception rate, 28th in success rate and 24th in explosive-play rate. Those type of second-reaction plays could and arguably should be a strength of his given his high-level athleticism, but things haven't played out that way so far. 

It's not like Lawrence hasn't done anything well in his career, though. He's avoided sacks at an elite rate, for example, using the aforementioned athleticism to buy time and avoid hits. Against four-man rushes, he checks in ninth in EPA per dropback on quick-game, rhythm throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap. On play-action passes, he has the league's seventh-highest explosive-play rate and the fifth-most completions of 20 or more yards. In straight dropback situations (i.e. non-screens without play-action), he has the 10th-lowest negative-play rate in the league (that's sacks plus interceptions plus fumbles divided by dropbacks). 

There are indicators of his talent level if you look into things on a more granular level, and when you watch the tape, you can see that when he's really in rhythm, he can still rip throws to every level of the field. There's a reason The Film Watchers™ still swear up and down by this guy. He has the type of arm talent that is extremely rare, and that allows him to make some throws that other guys can't make. And that's why so many people still have such high hopes for Lawrence as he moves into the next stage of his career, with a new head coach in former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen.

"I think if Liam can provide continuity for him and clarity for him from a play calling standpoint, I think it's really going to help," Ryan said. "And I think the more Liam can do to get him to feel comfortable in that space and to get guys open, I think that's where he can make that stride to being one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league."

Lawrence's rapid fall-off since 2022

Coen helped another former No. 1 overall pick in Baker Mayfield have the best season of his NFL career last year by scheming him into position for success and giving him easy buttons within the offense. He did the types of things that we know make the game simpler for quarterbacks, and helped elevate Mayfield from the type of up-and-down, inconsistent player he was -- the exact type of player Lawrence has been -- to being one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league last season.

"Through motion, through formation, pre-snap, you can get man/zone reads, things that really help a quarterback that not everybody does. When you get guys to do that, that'll help," Romo said. "And I think you're going to see they have some weapons that are going to be utilized a certain way. But I'm excited. If I was a Jaguars fan, I feel like now there's direction that I'd be excited."

Mechanically, CBS Sports NFL analyst Pete Prisco says Coen has worked with Lawrence to change the way he throws the football. 

"His mechanics are so much better, he's quicker with the ball," Prisco said, noting Lawrence's lengthy windup may be abbreviated. 

We'll have to see whether Coen can scheme around what should be expected to be a below-average offensive line in a way he didn't have to in Tampa last year, when the Bucs' group up front was one of the best in the NFL. Lawrence will have to contribute in that area as well, continuing to use his athleticism to avoid sacks and hits, and doing a better job of turning pressured and hurried throws into completions and explosive gains.

"I think Trevor's ability to run with the football helps," Ryan said. "I think he's a more athletic version of Baker. Baker can move. There's no question about it. But I think Trevor's athleticism allows Liam to be able to maybe mask some of those things that they have up front."

Travis Hunter listed as starting wide receiver, second-string cornerback on Jaguars Week 1 depth chart

Zachary Pereles

The Bucs last season threw the ball downfield often, but they also had arguably the best screen game in the league. Screens are obviously one way to offset a weak offensive line (though it helps the screen game if the line can be a major contributor, as Tampa's was), so if Coen can tap back into some of that, it should mitigate some of those issues. 

Either way, finally being in an offense where he's given some of the answers to the test in advance should allow us to see what Lawrence looks like when he can play more decisively instead of, as Romo mentioned, not necessarily knowing where to go with his eyes and having to hold onto the ball for too long, which hasn't been a strength of his to date.

"This is right in that sweet spot of your career where you know the game, you get an offensive minded coach who is going to put him in situations for success, and he's got talent around him," Romo said. "And I feel like he knows the game now. He knows how to think through each situation. Because when you're young, you're just kind of reacting instead of actually being ahead of the curve pre-snap. So I think you'll see a lot of that stuff this year."

The combination of four years of experience, a head coach/play-caller who has shown he can elevate players in a similar stage of their career and the presence of weapons like Thomas and No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter make this a make-or-break year for Lawrence. If he finally puts it all together, everyone who has backed him as a talented-but-failed-by-his-surroundings quarterback will be able to get their told-you-sos in there. If he doesn't take a step forward and finally begin to fully deliver on the promise with which he entered the league, there are going to be some difficult questions to ask about the type of player he truly is.