Chargers vs. Chiefs anytime TD props, odds, predictions: Back Ladd McConkey to score in NFL Week 1 bets

It's an AFC West showdown from Brazil on Friday as the three-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs take on the Los Angeles Chargers. While the Chiefs have won seven straight games in the rivalry, six of them have been decided by seven points or fewer, and another close game is expected in the opener. Surprisingly, no player has shorter anytime touchdown odds than Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy at +125, followed by Chargers running back Omarion Hampton (+154) and Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey (+175).

Targeting NFL player props is one way to approach NFL odds at online sports betting sites for NFL Week 1 betting. With NFL props available for almost every player in Chiefs vs. Chargers at top online sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your Chargers vs. Chiefs picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest BetMGM promo code, worth up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses in September:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Best Chiefs vs. Chargers anytime TD prop picks:

• Xavier Worthy, Chiefs (+125)
• Ladd McConkey, Chargers (+175)
• Quentin Johnston, Chargers (+350)

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Xavier Worthy, Chiefs (+125, DraftKings)

Worthy scored nine combined touchdowns in the regular season and three in the postseason, including two in Super Bowl LIX. He is not only Kansas City's No. 1 wide receiver with Rashee Rice out for the first six weeks (suspension), but the speedster adds a rushing threat. In last year's opener against the Ravens, Worthy scored one touchdown rushing and one receiving. He had three total rushing scores in 2024 and could be used for a few gadget plays on the ground in the season opener. The model predicts he scores 0.44 receiving touchdowns on average, making him a solid value at this price from DraftKings.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers (+175, Caesars)

McConkey caught seven touchdown passes in his rookie season, including one against Kansas City, the only time he faced them in 2024. In Los Angeles' postseason loss to Houston, the Chargers' slot receiver posted a 9-197-1 line, including an 86-yard touchdown. The Chiefs' secondary can be susceptible to big plays, and it's likely that Justin Herbert will pepper his top wide receiver with targets. The model predicts that McConkey scores 0.43 touchdowns on average, making this a good value.

Quentin Johnston, Chargers (+350, FanDuel)

This one is a bit of a surprise as the model projects Los Angeles' deep threat to score 0.38 times on average. Though he's returning from a concussion suffered in a preseason game, Johnston should be ready to go in Brazil on Friday night. Last season, he scored eight times, including once against Kansas City. He is a top red zone weapon for the Chargers, and there's great value on his prop from FanDuel. 

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You can also see Week 1 picks from NFL insider Emory Hunt, who is 45-24-1 in his last 70 NFL picks. See his Week 1 NFL best bets right here.