MLB Power Rankings: American League race opens up, plus one top NL contender surges and another slumps
How many teams have a decent chance to make the World Series from the AL side? It's at least six
By
Matt Snyder
•
1 min read
For much of the season, I've been saying the American League is wide open. Within the last few weeks, I declared that the Tigers and Blue Jays had separated themselves a little bit and were the frontrunners. While they still have the best records in the league, each of these teams has looked vulnerable of late.
The Blue Jays have gone 6-8 since Aug. 16. I heaped the praise on the Tigers last week and now they've lost six of their last eight and that rotation behind Tarik Skubal continues to look extremely concerning.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Yankees are only 2 ½ games back of the Jays in the AL East while the Tigers are only a half-game better than the Jays for the best record in the American League. The Astros are only a game behind the Yankees and Red Sox in the standings while the Mariners are only three back of the Astros. Might there be room for the Rangers or Royals to squeeze their way in?
Regardless, the AL is once again wide open. Any of the top six teams are legitimate contenders for the AL pennant and, frankly, the way things have been such a roller coaster ride for every good team, a surprise entrant in the playoffs could well steal that pennant.
Take a look at the odds to win the AL right now and ask yourself who you'd feel confident right now in picking? Odds via BetMGM:
- Tigers +290
- Yankees +375
- Blue Jays +400
- Mariners +550
- Astros +625
- Red Sox +650
- Rangers +3300
- Royals +6000
I think there's a good argument for the Red Sox having the best value, maybe, but I'm not confident in any of those teams.
Hopefully this means the playoffs will be wild and see a lot of long series with multiple times where it appears "momentum" changed. One thing I know for sure is there will be a good number of predictions out there that end up looking terrible. It's incredibly difficult to predict anyway, but especially so in the 2025 American League, where the top contenders go from looking like world-beaters to inept at the drop of a hat.
Biggest Movers
4
Giants
4
Padres
Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | The Brewers have been here at the top for over a month. They were on the verge of maybe possibly losing this top spot after dropping seven of 11, but then they went into Toronto (where the Blue Jays were 44-22 before the series) and won two of three. Still, their hold on this spot isn't as strong as it was a few weeks ago. If we equated their lead here to a game score, they were winning by 10 runs two weeks ago and now are winning by about three runs. | -- | 86-55 |
| 2 |  | Kyle Schwarber has 49 home runs. The list of Phillies to get to 50 in a single season isn't very long. It's one name: Ryan Howard's 58 in 2006. That's the only time in 143 seasons that a Phillies player has reached 50 bombs. | 1 | 81-59 |
| 3 |  | Shohei Ohtani has scored 124 runs, putting him on pace to reach 147 for the season. I noted this earlier in the season, but it's getting more real now: MLB hasn't seen a player score 150 runs in a season since 2000, when Jeff Bagwell scored 152 times. | 3 | 78-62 |
| 4 |  | Casey Mize has a 7.20 ERA in his last eight starts. Jack Flaherty's is 6.08 in his last 14, though two of his last three were good. These two need to step up in time for the playoffs. | 2 | 81-60 |
| 5 |  | Kudos to 35-year-old George Springer for having a renaissance this season. He hit .220/.303/.371 last season. Right now, he's at .300/.391/.533. That .925 OPS would be his best mark since 2019, when he finished seventh in MVP voting. | 1 | 81-59 |
| 6 |  | Ian Happ hit his 19th homer of the season on Monday. The Cubs already have five players with at least 20 homers. Once Happ gets there, it'll tie a franchise record with 2017, 2019 and 2023. Also of note, they have zero players with 30 homers. | 1 | 81-60 |
| 7 |  | Aroldis Chapman was last in the mix for the "best closer in baseball," what, six years ago? Maybe seven or eight? Nine or 10? He's the best closer in baseball right now at age 37. | 2 | 78-63 |
| 8 |  | The Yankees have won 14 of their last 19 games and now have quite an opportunity in front of them. Their upcoming schedule: At Astros, vs. Blue Jays, vs. Tigers, at Red Sox. Sure, they could lose a lot and that's a really tough stretch. If they play well enough, they could well emerge with the best AL record. | 2 | 78-62 |
| 9 |  | Jose Altuve now has 2,373 career hits. In using Bill James' "favorite toy" projection model, Altuve has a 9% chance to get to 3,000. I expected it to be a little higher than that. What say you? | 1 | 77-64 |
| 10 |  | There's reason to believe they have the talent to break out of it, but the rotation is in a funk with a 4.30 ERA since the All-Star break. | 1 | 73-67 |
| 11 |  | Whither Slam Diego? The Padres rank 29th in the majors in homers, only ahead of the lowly Pirates. Yeah, it's a tough ballpark, but they are 28th in home runs on the road. Still, the Padres are playing winning baseball. | 4 | 76-64 |
| 12 |  | Remember when sports radio told us Juan Soto wasn't enjoying himself and was having a terrible season? He now has 36 homers and 90 RBI with 24 games to go. Also, he's stolen a career-high 26 bases. The only Mets with 30-30 seasons are Darryl Strawberry, Howard Johnson (three times), David Wright and Francisco Lindor (who has 26 homers and 27 steals this season). | -- | 75-65 |
| 13 |  | What happened in Globe Life Field? It has been the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball this season. It was the third-most hitter-friendly yard in 2023. | 2 | 72-69 |
| 14 |  | Bobby Witt Jr. has 41 doubles to lead the majors. The Royals' record will be tough to reach (54, Hal McRae in 1977), but Witt could become the third Royals player to ever get to 50 doubles along with McRae, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. | -- | 71-69 |
| 15 |  | How about that Labor Day win? The Reds led basically all game and then suffered a gut punch in the ninth, seeing a 2-1 lead become a 4-2 deficit. Then Noelvi Marte walked it off! That's a fun day for the Reds fans in attendance who didn't leave early. | 2 | 70-70 |
| 16 |  | All of a sudden, the Giants have won eight of nine and have climbed back to .500. It's incredibly doubtful, but they're within miracle range of a playoff spot. | 4 | 71-69 |
| 17 |  | I suppose the Guardians are technically alive for that last wild card spot as well and maybe I should've mentioned them in the intro. They just feel like they'll continue to fall back to .500 or below after every stretch of winning. It's happened all season. This is who they are. | 2 | 69-70 |
| 18 |  | Junior Caminero is only 21 years old and he's going to top 40 homers and 100 RBI. Hall of Famers Mel Ott and Eddie Mathews along with Ronald Acuña Jr. are the only players ever with 40 homers and 100 RBI in an age-21 or younger season. | 2 | 71-69 |
| 19 |  | There have been 114 20-triple seasons in MLB history and we haven't seen one since 2007, when both Curtis Granderson (23) and Jimmy Rollins (20) got there. Corbin Carroll has 16 right now. Can he pull it off? | 1 | 70-71 |
| 20 |  | Sonny Gray's ERA two years ago? 2.79. Sonny Gray's ERA last year? 3.84. Sonny Gray's ERA this year? 4.43. Uh oh. He's 35 years old. Father Time is inevitable. | 3 | 70-71 |
| 21 |  | The Mets Spoilers? Since Aug. 3, the Marlins are 3-1 against the Mets and 7-17 against everyone else. | -- | 65-75 |
| 22 |  | Yes, an entire season can be derailed at any time. The A's had a stretch earlier this year where they lost 20 of 21. They are 63-55 otherwise, which would have them in the playoff mix. But they were historically dreadful for three weeks and it cost them. | 2 | 64-77 |
| 23 |  | Mike Trout hit a home run on Aug. 6 to run his career total to 398. In anticipation of him getting to 400, I wrote an article to have ready to be published when he did, in fact, hit his 400th career home run. It has now been 21 games without a home run. I'm sorry. Sometimes I forget all the karmic powers I possess. | 2 | 66-74 |
| 24 |  | How about this one? The Braves have gotten zero home runs from the shortstop position all season. The next-lowest team is the Pirates with five and 24 teams are in double digits, while seven having gotten at least 20 from the spot. | 1 | 63-77 |
| 25 |  | It's now been 14 starts for Trevor Rogers and he's not slowing down. He might really be this good now, making good on the promise he showed in 2021. | 3 | 64-76 |
| 26 |  | You know what might end up being the most out-of-whack thing in the 2025 season? The Twins' 13-game winning streak back in May. They are 49-75 if we exclude that run. | 1 | 62-78 |
| 27 |  | Bubba Chandler has been a lot of fun so far. With him, Paul Skenes, a returning Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft and Mitch Keller, the Pirates look like they'll have a great rotation next year. Will the front office do anything to help the woeful offense? | 1 | 64-77 |
| 28 |  | Lefty Andrew Alvarez had been in the minors for five years until finally debuting in the majors Monday at age 26. He worked five scoreless, one-hit innings and collected the win. Good for him. | -- | 56-84 |
| 29 |  | The White Sox have hit the 50-win mark? Yes, they have. They are going to hit their over! Good job, Sox, in making progress after last season's debacle. | -- | 53-88 |
| 30 |  | The White Sox's record last season was 41-121. The Rockies would have to go just 2-22 to equal that or 3-19 to surpass it. I'll declare that the record is safe. | -- | 39-101 |
